Entering the middle and late December, the herbicide market presents a split situation. The destructive herbicides continue to play games, and the upstream will still have a strong desire to stabilize prices. The market for terminal preparations is chaotic, and the overall bearish mentality continues to affect the market volume in the short term.
In this context, the price of glyphosate, the dominant herbicide, remains sluggish, and there is no sign of a price rebound.
Since entering the fourth quarter, the market of total herbicides has been shrouded in "low pressure".
And since September, the glyphosate industry has been like a pool of stagnant water. With the gradual shrinking of transaction volume, the prices of technical medicines and preparations have also continued to fluctuate slightly downward, and there is no sign of a rebound in the slightest.
In December, due to the double catalysis of the sharp drop in export volume and the resistance of downstream distributors to the high price of glyphosate, the price of technical glyphosate seriously lacked support and directly fell below the warning line of 50,000 yuan/ton.
According to the price index data of Zhongnong Lihua original medicine, as of December 18, the price of domestic glyphosate original medicine fell to 48,000 yuan/ton, compared with 84,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, the price per ton dropped by 36,000 yuan Yuan / ton.
In December, the price of terminal herbicide preparations continued to hit new lows, which led to insufficient support for the original drug, and most manufacturers focused on limiting production and ensuring prices. It is reported that the current 50-gram specification of 757 glyphosate granules has dropped to about 2.45 yuan/bag, and the 33% glyphosate ammonium salt solution has also dropped to less than 19,000 yuan/ton.
"Although the price of glyphosate technical has fallen below 50,000 yuan/ton, but based on the synthetic cost, there is still a huge room for price decline of glyphosate technical, and the gross profit still needs to be more than 20,000 yuan/ton , The bargaining power is still in the hands of several leading upstream manufacturers, and now it is more in the stage of mutual game between the original drug and the preparation manufacturers." The person in charge of a glyphosate preparation manufacturer in Hebei said.
There is little hope for prices to stop falling and rebound before the Spring Festival
After 48,000 yuan/ton, will glyphosate technical medicine still fall? Will it fall below 40,000 yuan/ton? Can prices stop falling and rebound before the Spring Festival?
From the perspective of demand, December is the peak period for winter storage orders in the pesticide industry, but this year’s market performance is still stable and declining. The upstream and downstream stocking is still relatively cautious. Digesting inventory is still the main theme, and the overall stocking rate is low. In the same period last year, the market did not usher in the expected traditional peak season.
From the perspective of supply, with the release of the national epidemic situation, factory equipment maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has continued to decrease. At the same time, due to factors such as the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the output has not increased, and the overall pesticide market has entered a short-term small off-season.
Based on the above factors, it is expected that the price of glyphosate technical will continue to decrease slightly before the Spring Festival, and the chance of a rebound is unlikely. However, based on the reduction in overall production capacity, the possibility of a narrow increase is not ruled out. In the future market, it is still necessary to focus on exports and market supply and demand.
